Week 8 of the NFL season features a matchup between AFC West Division rivals — the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers. Let’s jump into our Broncos vs. Chargers betting preview with odds, picks, and predictions.
Broncos vs. Chargers Odds
Despite being the home team, the Broncos are the underdog by a field goal, give or take a half-point. This line hasn’t seen much movement at all as the week has progressed.
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The Broncos are +3.5 on the spread line and +150 on the moneyline on DraftKings Sportsbook. The total points mark is set to 44.5.
Here’s a look at the current Broncos vs. Chargers Week 8 odds:
DraftKings Sportsbook Colorado
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | -3.5 (-105) | -175 | O 44.5 (-110) |
| Broncos | +3.5 (-117) | +150 | U 44.5 (-110) |
Preview
The Broncos and Chargers are meeting for the first time this season. These two teams are bringing up the rear in the AFC West, but they seem to be trending in different directions. The Broncos are struggling to put up points with Drew Lock under center. The Chargers, on the other hand, appear to have found the quarterback of the future in Justin Herbert.
The Broncos swept the series between these two in 2019, but this year is going to be a completely different animal. Lock only played in one of those games last year and Herbert was still playing for the Oregon Ducks at the time.
The Broncos and Chargers are tied for last place in the AFC West with records of 2-4. The winner will keep their playoff hopes alive while the loser will be facing an uphill battle.
Will the Broncos bounce back and win their third game in four tries or will Herbert lead the Chargers to victory for a second consecutive week? Find out in our Broncos vs. Chargers betting preview with odds, picks, and predictions.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chargers | -3 (-120) | -174 | O 44.5 (-114) |
| Broncos | +3 (-102) | +146 | U 44.5 (-106) |
Win Probability
Let’s dive into the win probability for the Broncos in this game. According to a moneyline of +150, the Broncos have approximately a 40% chance of winning.
With that said, FiveThirtyEight’s ELO model paints a much different picture. The ELO model has the Broncos as two-point favorites with a 57% chance at winning.
That’s a 5.5-point swing from the line on DraftKings Sportsbook to the line from the ELO model. That’s significant enough to give some bettors pause about betting the spread line.
Where Is The Money Going?
Let’s see how the public is betting on Broncos vs. Chargers.
DraftKings doesn’t have any information out on what the public is betting on the spread line, but the action is heavy on the Chargers on the moneyline. In terms of bet tickets placed, 80% is on the Chargers and in terms of total money, 82% is on Los Angeles.
Meanwhile, 74% of tickets and 66% of the money is coming in on the over for the total points. This shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. The total points mark is at a manageable 44.5 points and let’s be honest, it’s way more fun betting overs.
How to Watch Broncos vs. Chargers
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 1
- Time: 2:05 p.m. MT
- Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver, Colorado)
- TV: CBS
- Announcers: Greg Gumbel (play-by-play), Rich Gannon (game analyst), and Jay Feely (sideline reporter)
How to Bet Broncos vs. Chargers
First things first, William Hill Sportsbook Colorado is coming in hot with a ridiculous offer on this contest. New users can bet $5 on either the Broncos or Chargers with a 50-point spread at 20-1 odds.
In other words, as long as the team you pick doesn’t lose by 50-plus points, you win $100. There isn’t a better offer anywhere else on this game. It’s the very definition of free money. You can get these odds by clicking here.
Broncos vs. Chargers Betting Trends
Why Backing the Broncos Makes Sense
Broncos Are Good ATS
The Broncos have been good against the spread this year no matter who is playing quarterback. Denver is 4-2 against the spread this year and 13-9 dating back to last year.
Secret To Beating The Chargers?
The Broncos have won three in a row and four of their last five against the Chargers dating back to 2018. Of course, the rosters are different at this point, but Denver seems to have their number in recent years.
Why Backing the Chargers Makes Sense
Chargers Are Great ATS
The Chargers have covered the spread in all but one game this season. Justin Herbert’s emergence means that they are never out of a game and covering a three-point spread won’t be impossible, even if the Chargers go down early.
Lock’s Struggles
Herbert is ascending while Lock is bottoming out. The second-year quarterback hasn’t thrown for a touchdown since Week 1 and he has four interceptions in his last two games. Lock is really struggling to find his footing this season.
Even On The Total Points
There isn’t too much to say about total points trends here. Both teams are 3-3 on over-unders so far this season, so this game could really go either way.
Broncos vs. Chargers Prediction
The Broncos have recent history on their side going into this game, but the Chargers have the edge at quarterback. Anyone starting a team from scratch would take Herbert over Lock at this point in time. That much is obvious.
But the Broncos have a two-headed monster in the backfield with Phillip Lindsay and Melvin Gordon. Lindsay is questionable for Sunday with a concussion, but if he is able to play, Lock will have significant help from his running backs. If the Broncos can establish the run, it could open things up through the air.
Los Angeles ranks near the bottom of the NFL in passing defense (23rd), allowing 253.2 yards per game. The Chargers rank near the middle of the pack in nearly every other category. In other words, Lock needs to take advantage of that weak pass defense. Can he? That remains to be seen.
The Broncos are in the top half of the league in total (8th), passing (12th), and rushing defense (11th). They just miss the cut with the 16th-ranked scoring defense in the NFL. In reality, the defense will need to step up to provide Lock and the offense with some support if they are going to win this game.
Broncos vs. Chargers Pick
We hate to do this to the fine folks in Colorado but take the Chargers laying the points.
Click here to get 25-1 odds on the Eagles to beat the Cowboys on Sunday at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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