Lehigh Valley weather: Cold days like this are less common than they used to be - lehighvalleylive.com

The Lehigh Valley is in a bit of a cold stretch, with temperatures not expected to rise above the freezing point until Tuesday.

Days this cold have been less common in recent years than in decades past.

National Weather Service records complete back to 1923 show that In a normal year we could expect 25 days – not all in a row, of course – when the daily high is 32 degrees or below.

In 2020, we had eight. We’ve ended below average every year since 2015.

(Can’t see the chart? Click here.)

After speaking with a weather service meteorologist, lehighvalleylive.com compiled a five-year rolling average of sub-freezing days locally, which can more clearly show the trend in year-to-year variability. The average was highest in the mid-1940s and at the close of the 1970s, which shows cold days happened more frequently year-to-year. By contrast, the average reached its lowest point at the end of 2020, showing fewer of these cold days each year.

By itself, this one data point is mildly interesting but not particularly meaningful, said Nick Carr, a meteorologist in the National Weather Service office in Mount Holly, New Jersey. But it does fit a larger trend.

“In general, stuff is warming,” Carr said.

There is a difference between long-term climate and short-term weather, but 2020 was one of the warmest years on record in the Lehigh Valley and the world, according to data on average temperature published by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Locally, that was not achieved through extreme highs but warmer nightly lows.

(Can’t see the chart? Click here.)

Climatologists warn that continued, general warming means long-term changes. An insufficiently cold winter means more agricultural pests and disease. Seasonally, it manifests as less frequent but more intense snowstorms.

In the short-term, we’re generally less likely to see many more of the sub-freezing days this season. The days have been getting longer since Dec. 21, and temperatures are generally at their lowest at this point in the season, turning the corner and beginning to rise into spring weather.

So bundle up for now. The winter’s coldest days are here but they won’t last.

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Steve Novak may be reached at snovak@lehighvalleylive.com.

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Lehigh Valley weather: Cold days like this are less common than they used to be - lehighvalleylive.com
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