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Wednesday, April 26, 2023

Deion Sanders’ tough math: ‘We haven’t seen anything quite like this’ - The Athletic

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Good morning! Don’t let anyone hit a logo 3 on you today.


While You Were Sleeping

Two closers, one choker

Congratulations are in order for the Phoenix Suns and Denver Nuggets, who each avoided the 3-1 hex and closed out their respective opening-round series last night. Nikola Jokic had a triple-double, and Devin Booker outscored the Clippers by himself in a quarter.

The Celtics, however, earned today’s jeers. Boston could not close out the pesky Hawks at home in Game 5, instead allowing “Ice Trae” Young to regain his road playoff superpowers. With Atlanta’s season on the line, he pulled this off:

Filthy. The win gives the Hawks life, suddenly down just 3-2 with Game 6 in Atlanta, and also benefits the Sixers, who will get another week of rest as they wait for this series to play out. For a wobbly Joel Embiid, that’s clutch.

We have a busy schedule tonight. Three teams — Knicks, Lakers and Heat — have closeout opportunities before a tantalizing Game 5 between the Warriors and Kings serves as a nightcap. It will be fascinating to see how an injured De’Aaron Fox plays.

  • Meanwhile: Three NHL teams (Islanders, Stars and Oilers) all registered massive wins last night. Each series sits at 3-2, too. Edmonton finally looked like the contender everyone saw coming into the postseason.

Epic Turnover

Prime numbers?

Ignore the name, the custom “Prime” swag and all those hype videos. From a pure roster math standpoint — as we lightly touched on yesterday — what Deion Sanders is undertaking at Colorado is shocking and unprecedented.

Forty-plus players have transferred from Colorado since Sanders arrived. More are probably on the way out with just five months before the season kicks off. Many of them were shown the door, too, according to this story from David Ubben. I’m not a math whiz, but fielding a full roster in this state is daunting, even considering how many transfers the Buffs have imported.

To get a better perspective on the task ahead, I caught up with The Athletic’s college football writer/transfer portal savant Max Olson:

Deion predicted this exodus, and it still feels monumental. Has this scale of a roster turnover been done before at the Power 5 level?
Max: We haven’t seen anything quite like this since the transfer portal debuted in 2018. Last year, not one Power 5 program lost 30 scholarship players to the portal. USC and TCU did pull off fast flips, but their transfer attrition (21 for USC, 16 for TCU) was nowhere close to what Colorado is experiencing. New coaching staffs dealing with departures before or after Year 1 is becoming increasingly common. But losing this many players in the first six months is unprecedented.

Am I right in calculating he needs to replace 60 players (transfers + graduates) by the time the season kicks off?
Max: The number might end up being closer to 70 than 60 at this point. Sanders and his staff have already landed 28 transfers, including 20 who enrolled in time for spring practice. They have 19 high school or junior college signees, many of whom likely play right away. So that’s close to 50 newcomers already.

This week’s exodus means this staff could conceivably go out and add around 20 more newcomers. There are a few positions — defensive line and wide receiver stand out — where these coaches need to find several more players in order to have adequate depth.

What do you think is a reasonable win expectation for Deion to consider this year successful and continue recruiting momentum?
Max: Winning five games in Year 1 would be seriously impressive. Sanders has put together an experienced staff, already has a talented QB and has landed exciting playmakers and veteran starters on both sides of the ball. Blue-chip recruits want to play for Deion. Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter and Cormani McClain shining right away will help Colorado land more big names. That star power is critical for an almost entirely rebuilt team facing a tough schedule.

To Max’s point, it’s really hard to find five wins on this schedule. I’ll take the under — for now.


Briefs

OMG, IMG
Prestigious athletics-focused boarding school IMG Academy sold for $1.25 billion — with a B — yesterday, its former parent company announced, a staggering figure for one of the country’s most prolific athlete-producing schools. IMG will join a global network of boarding schools as part of the deal, giving the school access to athletes from across the world. The school’s previous owner, Endeavor, just bought WWE, and $1.25 billion probably helps pay some bills.

Speaking of money
Nashville is expected to approve a public contribution to a new stadium for the Titans, which would bring the taxpayer total to an astounding $1.26 billion for the new digs. It will be the biggest sports subsidy in U.S. history, as Daniel Kaplan writes. It’s part of a trend that’s seen American pro teams ask for more and more public funds to help with stadium costs.

Next Mahomes?
We’re suffering through the silliest week of NFL chatter right now, with a Reddit post taking the news cycle by storm yesterday. Some of us are already looking to next year, though, as USC’s Caleb Williams will enter the season as the likeliest No. 1 pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. According to a QB coach who spoke to Bruce Feldman, the Heisman winner is “like a refined Mahomes” with a slightly weaker arm but all the traits of a superstar nonetheless. One coach even said Williams would’ve gone No. 1 this year if eligible. Should a team skip this year’s QBs and wait for Williams? Seems unwise, but then again, a Redditor is out here making Will Levis the No. 1 pick, so anything goes.


Pulse Picks

Who are the top 100 players in NFL history? The Athletic’s NFL staff wrote a whole book on it, set for publication in October. Preorders are live here.

Cale Makar’s suspension comes at a horrible time. Peter Baugh wonders what it means for the defending champs’ chances against the Kraken.

Have you seen Jarred Kelenic this year? The former top prospect is raking, and Ken Rosenthal has the full story on a wild offseason for the 23-year-old.

Houston running back Alton McCaskill, a former star freshman, is in the transfer portal. You probably have a good guess on one of his leading candidates.

Everyone in the NHL hates officiating. Here’s why it is the way it is.

Tottenham players are issuing refunds for any Spurs fan who traveled to see the Newcastle meltdown. Seriously.

Jason Jones has a nice feature on Isaiah Land, the top HBCU prospect in this week’s NFL Draft.

The 2023 Bowman set comes out today. We had two writers in the Topps Spot house recently, chatting with the young prospects who were signing cards that could be worth $1 million soon.

(Photo: Ron Chenoy/USA Today)

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Deion Sanders’ tough math: ‘We haven’t seen anything quite like this’ - The Athletic
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