The Penguins are 16-9-1 and have won four in a row. Can they yet be more than a borderline playoff team? Can they win a playoff series? Can they be a legit Stanley Cup contender?
Hey, why not? If Steelers fans can fool themselves, so can Penguins fans.
But here’s what has to happen:
• Tristan Jarry has to be the second-best goaltender in the East division and clearly so. He doesn’t have to be better than Boston’s Tuukka Rask. Just everybody else.
That’s doable, especially given the competition: Washington is using kids. The New York Islanders’ Semyon Varlamov is average, his stats a product of his team’s system. Philadelphia’s Carter Hart has fallen off his pedigree and gone splat.
Jarry mostly has to eliminate bad goals, such as the lame wraparound Buffalo scored Thursday just 27 seconds after the Penguins had seized a 1-0 lead. Even ABBA had their Waterloo, and Jarry’s is shaky goals. Great saves don’t take bad goals out of the net.
• The Penguins have to stay 100% healthy up front. That won’t happen. But we’re pretending here, anyway.
With even one injury, the fourth line stinks. But let’s say Evan Rodrigues keeps playing well with Evgeni Malkin and Kasperi Kapanen. (Rodrigues plays up or down to the level of whomever he’s on the ice with.) Let’s say Jason Zucker comes back and plops on the third line with Teddy Blueger and Brandon Tanev, creating a semblance of that Phil Kessel/HBK vibe. (Zucker has the puck too much to play with Malkin or Sidney Crosby.)
Then your fourth line can be Jared McCann, Zach Aston-Reese and Anthony Angello. That’s not terrible.
You’ve got to roll four lines. The schedule is too condensed to lean on three.
• The stars have to play great. Duh. “That’s what you’re paid for, Braden!” We’re seeing signs of that, but more productivity is needed.
• Coach Mike Sullivan needs a Plan B tactically.
The Penguins want to play fast but are proving they can’t do that for 60 minutes every game.
Witness Tuesday’s 4-2 home win over the New York Rangers: The Rangers are just as fast as the Penguins, but younger. New York skated Pittsburgh off the rink in the third period, holding a 15-1 edge in shots. Crosby’s empty-net goal with 33 seconds left was the Penguins’ lone shot. Good thing that game wasn’t two minutes longer.
The Penguins aren’t genetically disposed or legally mandated to play only wide-open. One size no longer fits all. Every NHL player knows how to trap. The Penguins need to play score and situation. What’s more important: Adapting and having a better shot to win, or being true to your precious style?
• The Penguins need to lead more and come out flat less. Fourteen of their 16 wins are come from behind. It’s folly to think that can continue.
• The Penguins must improve dramatically on special teams. They rank 23rd on both the power play (17.6%) and penalty-kill (74.4%) and are worse than those numbers.
The power play doesn’t create momentum often enough. The PK repeatedly hangs on by a thread. What they’re doing wrong is obvious and frequently discussed, and the Penguins seem disinclined to fix it.
• The Penguins need to get tougher and more effective in both slots. The NHL is trending toward heavier. The Penguins epitomize the charge of the light brigade.
Aside from the random nature of staying healthy, the Penguins should be able to tighten up all that within a week or so and be ready for a nice, long playoff run.
It helps greatly that the East division isn’t quite as good as advertised.
Hart is killing Philadelphia. Washington is slow. Boston is great defensively and in goal, but offensive depth betrays the Bruins. The Islanders have won seven straight and lead the division. But five of those victories have been against Buffalo and New Jersey. The Penguins get their turn to do that.
The Penguins could up their playoff potential by finishing first in the East and reaping the benefits that accompany.
It’s tough to imagine them beating Boston in a best-of-seven. But they would stand a legit chance against anyone else.
The Penguins basically will play the cards they’ve got. The big fix-it deal as a precursor to a Stanley Cup that you’ve come to expect since then-GM Craig Patrick got Ron Francis, Ulf Samuelsson and Grant Jennings in 1991 isn’t there. Ron Hextall doesn’t have much trade capital unless he wants to further gut the team’s future, and this roster doesn’t merit that.
Categories: Mark Madden Columns | Penguins/NHL | Sports
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Mark Madden: Here's what has to happen for the Penguins to be legit contenders - TribLIVE
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