After a crystal-clear Sunday, the last of its kind for a long time, we’ll be awakening to a dreary Monday morning, with rain and somewhat milder temperatures into the low 60s possible in South Berkshire. The rest of the Berkshires are likely to remain on the chilly side of a stalled weather system, whose exact boundary is unclear.
The battle between cold and mild air masses should lead to a coastal storm developing for Tuesday, but the amount of rainfall depends on the track of the system. Rain should wind down before dawn on Wednesday, followed by a respite before the next storm arrives with widespread rainfall, beginning late Friday and continuing on and off through the weekend.
What about the Sunday evening Halloween candy-seeking expeditions? It’s a tricky forecast this far in advance, but we could be treated to a break in a remarkably gloomy, wet end to a month that opened with two weeks of unusually mild temperatures.
The Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for the first week of November indicates near-normal temperatures and rainfall for western New England are likely. Early-morning dog walkers, commuters and school-bound families can look forward to sunrise an hour earlier when standard time returns on Nov. 8. But many people will be heading home in twilight, as sunset will be around 4:45 that week.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s national winter weather outlook for December through February leans toward above-normal temperatures for the Northeast, while western Massachusetts is within an extensive zone of expected normal amounts of snowfall and rain. Berkshire County’s historic average for seasonal snowfall is 76 inches.
Speaking of snow, the Mount Washington Observatory atop New England’s highest peak celebrated the arrival of winter weather last Monday and Tuesday, as New Hampshire Public Radio’s Sarah Gibson informed listeners. Following seven inches of snow and several days of ice fog, the summit resembled a winter wonderland, according to Jackie Bellefontaine, a weather observer and education specialist who spends eight-day shifts at the observatory.
“The summit looks absolutely gorgeous, covered in snow and rime ice,” Bellefontaine told NHPR. Rime ice occurs when water droplets freeze onto the surfaces of trees and other objects, giving them a feather-like, frosty look.
The mountain, known for having some of the most extreme weather and dangerous hiking in the world, gets average winds of 45 mph in the winter months. The mountain’s record peak gust of 231 mph was recorded in 1934; more recently, a 147 mph blast in 2020.
But Bellefontaine, in her snow pants, two jackets, and goggles, said the wintry preview was what she’s been waiting for. “We very much enjoy our snow up here on the summit,” she said, laughing. “We’re all very much into the extreme winter weather.”
People look at the view of Adams from the summit of Mount Greylock on Sunday, as crystal-clear skies allowed viewers to see for miles from the highest peak in the state.
NATIONAL OVERVIEW
The powerful storm that blasted into northern California on Sunday carried the threat of floods and mudslides, especially where the ground is scarred by wildfires. At least two feet of snow is expected along the Sierra Nevada range as the storm shifts southward to metro Los Angeles and the Mexican border on Monday, enhancing the prospects for floods and mudslides.
The National Weather Service stated that the system will generate enough rain to be classified as an Atmospheric River event, a parade of storms feeding extreme moisture in waves across the Pacific onto the West Coast. A storm warning is in effect for the Pacific Northwest, while flash flood watches and high wind warnings have been issued for areas farther inland.
Heavy rainfall is expected for much of northern/central California as well as the Pacific Northwest coast, with 3 to 6 inches of rain by Monday night. A high risk of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding is in effect for parts of northern California. Temperatures will plunge statewide, 20-25 degrees below average on Monday. The Pacific storm will produce moderate rainfall and heavy mountain snow as it moves into the Rockies by Tuesday.
As the week begins, heavy rainfall and thunderstorms are predicted for the mid-Mississippi Valley and the Midwest.
The extended outlook from Wednesday to next Sunday depicts back-to-back storm systems from the Southern Plains to the mid-Atlantic coast. Another system moves into the Pacific Northwest on Friday, with a repeat of heavy lowland rain and mountain snow.
Ample moisture from the Gulf of Mexico feeds moderate to locally heavy rains across much of the lower and middle Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast regions on Wednesday, where there’s severe weather potential. The rainfall will expand eastward into the Ohio Valley/Appalachians and eventually the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions to close out the week.
CLIMATE UPDATE
Music festivals contribute to the climate crisis as bright lights and booming sound devour energy and fans and artists drive and fly from all over the globe to attend them. Festivals sell the transformative power of music while prolonged summers become unbearably hot.
“This summer, what we’ve seen meteorologically are a great number of incredible record-shattering heat waves, downpours and flood events,” said Daniel Swain, a UCLA climate scientist.
Festivals are tourist attractions that fuel a wildly lucrative business. By next year, the live music industry is projected to be worth $31 billion globally. Entertainment companies like Live Nation are being encouraged by concerned citizens and organizations to reflect on their carbon footprint and outline goals to make their productions more sustainable.
Coachella, in the desert three hours east of Los Angeles, created “Carpoolchella” to reward fans who travel together via car. Still, even as one of the largest and most profitable music festivals in the world, its initiatives are flimsy as its webpage is filled with fluffy rhetoric such as “Speak up about the impacts of climate change,” “Deploy a Waste Gang team to increase recycling & compost,” and “Share best practices.”
The rock band Coldplay paused their touring schedule until they were able to produce carbon-neutral shows, which they will launch in March. “I’m scared of the sociopolitical state of the world, scared about climate change, scared about COVID,” the group’s Naomi McPherson told the Washington Post, recalling scenes of fans passing out from the recent heat waves. “I’m scared every day. Things are getting more extreme.”
“It’s a microcosm of the larger problem. Individual decisions are important, but you’re constrained by the decisions available to you,” Swain, the UCLA climate scientist, said. “[Organizers] have to make it easier to make good choices.”
Jon Christensen, who teaches environmental communications at UCLA, is confident the industry will adapt. “The desire to celebrate together through music will not be repressed,” he said. “If we can’t have beauty and joy while addressing the climate crisis, we won’t succeed.”
Material from the Washington Post was included in the climate update.
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