The Red Sox cannot make the playoffs in this fashion.
Yes, the team sits in position to reach the playoffs as the second wild card seed – an accomplishment that would net a three-game series in Tampa Bay – but unless the Red Sox improve profoundly against the AL East, an October vacation is a far more likely outcome.
With the Red Sox’ 6-5 loss to the Yankees on Thursday, the team dropped to 9-19 (.321) against its divisional competition. The only teams with worse records against their divisions are all in last place: The Nationals (7-30, .189), A’s (7-20, .259), and Diamondbacks (9-21, .300).
Since the introduction of the division format in 1969, the team’s worst winning percentage within the AL East was .350 (in the compressed 2020 season). The team’s worst record against the AL East over a full season was 26-46 in the last-place season of 2012, a .361 mark.
The fact that the Sox are in position to make the playoffs right now owes entirely to their excellence outside the division (36-19, .655). But with 48 of their remaining 79 games (60.8 percent) coming against the Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays, and Orioles – whose young core is starting to coalesce – the Sox’ playoff hopes rest on massive improvement in their performance against their primary competitors.
What would happen if the Sox sustained their performance to date against both within and outside of the division? Here are their projected records:
Vs. AL East: 24-52
Vs. everyone else: 56-30
Total: 80-82
Even in an expanded playoff field, it’s hard to imagine that a team with a losing record will be playing beyond 162 games. The Sox – losers of all eight of their series against AL East teams this year – will need considerable improvement.
But is there a culprit for the team’s woes against the AL East? Why have the Sox found it so difficult to compete within the division?
First, the team has struggled in the most competitive games. The team has been outscored by 29 runs (130-101) in its 28 games, a differential that would yield a projected 11-17 record. But the Sox are 4-8 in one-run games against the AL East, with six of those losses getting charged to the bullpen based on late-innings struggles.
So is the bullpen the culprit for the Sox’ struggles in the AL East? Not really.
IN-DIVISION: 3.64 ERA, .232/.312/.353 opponent line, 0.89 homers per 9 innings, 9 blown saves (in 28 games)
NON-AL EAST: 3.62 ERA, .213/.303/.341 opponent line, 0.95 homers per 9 innings, 9 blown saves (in 55 games)
Everything looks largely the same – except for the frequency of blown saves. Yet that disparity may point more to the number of times the Sox have been in close games against divisional competition than to a bullpen that has performed differently in and out of the AL East.
When the Red Sox got off to their awful start, chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom often suggested that the notion of the bullpen’s shortcomings was the product of a look through a distorted prism – that the offense’s struggles often had put the relievers in a position where a single run over four innings would mean a blown save or a loss.
Has that been the case in and out of the AL East?
IN-DIVISION: 3.6 runs/game, .240/.297/.371, 6.7 percent walk rate, 20.7 percent strikeout rate, 0.75 HR/game
NON-AL EAST: 5.2 runs/game, .269/.337/.434, 8.4 percent walk rate, 20.8 percent strikeout rate, 1.1 HR/game
That’s a shocking difference. Opposing pitching staffs in the AL East have been capable of controlling the Red Sox, who have the lowest scoring average within the division of any AL East team. If it feels like the season has been a tale of two offenses, with the Sox swinging between status as one of the best and worst offenses in the game, it’s because that’s exactly what has transpired.
Yet the offense has not been the only area of the club to fare worse within the division. The rotation has also endured significant dropoff against the team’s primary competition.
IN-DIVISION: 4.80 ERA, .257/.332/.439 opponent line, 1.38 homers per 9 innings
NON-AL EAST: 3.25 ERA, .235/.287/.387 opponent line, 1.04 homers per 9 innings
That disparity is as massive as the dropoff by the offense. One underappreciated contributing factor to the Sox’ divisional woes has been the absence of Nate Eovaldi, who has dominated within the division in recent years, including a 2.20 ERA against the AL East in five starts this year.
But the 2021 All-Star has been sidelined for the recent reunions with the Jays, Rays, and Yankees. In his absence, depth callups Josh Winckowski, Connor Seabold, and Brayan Bello have a combined 11.34 ERA in their four starts against the AL East, with all four of their starts getting out of hand fairly quickly.
The young starters’ struggles within the division offer a reminder that the Sox’ outlook within the division has a chance to change considerably as Eovaldi, Chris Sale, Rich Hill, Michael Wacha, and James Paxton re-enter the equation.
That said, it’s also worth noting that the Sox are 2-5 in Nick Pivetta’s starts against the AL East, compared to a 7-3 mark in his outings against other teams. Pivetta has a 5.94 ERA against Baltimore, Toronto, New York, and Tampa Bay – and a 2.39 ERA against everyone else. Pivetta’s starkly contrasting results serve as a microcosm of the performance split that has characterized so much of the Sox’ season to date.
Alex Speier can be reached at alex.speier@globe.com. Follow him on Twitter at @alexspeier.
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The Red Sox can't make the playoffs playing like this against the AL East. A closer look at their struggles. - The Boston Globe
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